India capex themes (6 of 6): Aerospace, plus what the whole series shows

Balaji Thanigaiarasu · 2026-09-12T05:47:37.157Z

> This is part of a six-post series on the capex themes Jefferies has identified for > India: space, semiconductors, data centres, electronics, solar and aerospace. Each > post takes one theme, states what Jefferies projects, then checks the listed companies > against our own scoring. The series index is in the first post. What Jefferies projects Boeing and Airbus already source $1.4–1.6 billion per year from India. India gains further as the global aerospace supply chain rebalances. What our data says Bharat Forge is the one to look at closely. It is the most frequently named aerospace play in India, and on our numbers it scores 23 on durability with earnings down 100% and a P/E of 132. Whatever the long-term story, the current financials do not support the price. HAL and BEL are the quality end: 23% and 25% return on equity, mid-range valuations, and steady rather than spectacular growth. Raymond appears on aerospace lists because of its engineering arm, but it earns 1.6% on equity and is classified under Realty in our data. Be careful with thematic lists that include a company for one division. What the whole series shows Six themes, 22 listed companies. The single most useful thing our data adds is this: These themes are not a secret. The basket trades at roughly two and a half times the market's median P/E. Every one of these stories is already well known and priced accordingly. That does not make the themes wrong. India almost certainly will build more semiconductors, data centres and solar capacity. It makes the entry price the thing that determines your return, not the theme. Three observations from working through all six: Only solar screens as reasonably valued. Waaree and Premier Energies are the sole names where strong fundamentals and an attractive price coincide. Several companies show revenue growing while earnings fall — Kaynes, Amber, Data Patterns, Bharat Forge. That is what building capacity ahead of demand looks like. It works if demand arrives on schedule. The listed exposure is often partial. Most of these companies would grow without the theme, and most derive a minority of revenue from it. For discussion Which of the six do you think is most mispriced, in either direction? Is there a better way to play these than the obvious large names, given the valuations? For anyone holding these: did you buy the theme or the company? Open the analysis page for any symbol above for the full picture. Source: Jefferies research identifying six capex themes for India, as reported in a television segment. The sector forecasts above are Jefferies' estimates, not ours, and we have not independently verified them. Their individual stock ratings are deliberately not reproduced here. All company scores and financial figures are TradeIdea's own, from the quarter ended 30 June 2026. Community posts are member opinions, not investment advice. Naming a company is not a recommendation to buy it. Do your own research before investing.

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